Rice export outlook cloudy

The pace of rough rice exports in 2000/01 has slowed in recent weeks and is expected to maintain the slower pace for the remainder of the marketing year. Rough rice exports are expected to be strong in 2001/02, but not as large as projected earlier.

Ending stocks for 2001/02 are unchanged at 21.9 million cwt.

The season-average price range for 2001/02 is unchanged at $5.25 to $5.75 per cwt compared to a revised estimate of $5.65 per cwt for 2000/01.

Projected global 2001/02 rice production is lowered 1 percent from last month based largely on a recalculation of a historical trend using a revised estimate of China's 2000/01 production.

No changes are made on the use side for 2001/02. Ending stocks in 2001/02 are lowered 4.7 million tons.

World production and ending stocks are lowered in 2000/01 based largely on a downward revision in China's crop.

Global imports and exports in 2000/01 are also lowered.

China's 2000/01 rice crop is estimated at 131.54 million tons, down nearly 1.5 million tons from last month based on official data from China. Rice production is also lowered in Iran and Taiwan.

China's 2000/01 exports are lowered to 1.8 million tons based on a slower-than-expected pace to date.

Import estimates for 2000/01 are lowered for Indonesia, Iran, and Iraq.

Historical revisions are made to Iran's consumption and ending stocks back to 1972/73.

Rice Situation and Outlook Slide Sets may be viewed:


USDA 2001 Rice Loan Rates by Class:

The 2001 rice loan rates for farm-stored rice by class are as follows:

State Long Grain Medium Grain Short Grain

Arkansas 6.66 6.22 6.13

California 6.35 6.06 6.13

Louisiana 6.62 6.13 6.13

Mississippi 6.54 6.09 6.13

Missouri 6.62 6.09 6.13

Texas 6.94 5.91 6.13

National Avg. 6.67 6.09 6.13

For rice stored in commercial warehouses, the whole kernel milled rice loan rates for the 2001 crop are $10.69 per cwt for long grain and $9.69 for medium/short grain. The broken kernel rate for all rice classes is $5.35 per cwt.

The loan rate discounts for grades (per cwt of rough rice) lower than grade #2 are unchanged from those applicable to the 2000 crop of rice. The discounts are $0.30 for grade #3, $0.60 for grade #4, $1.00 for grade #5, $2.00 for grade #6, and $5.50 for sample grade.

Discounts for smut content (per cwt of rough rice) are also unchanged at 5 cents for 0.1 to 1.0 percent smut; 10 cents for 1.1 to 2 percent smut; and 15 cents for 2.1 to 3 percent smut. Rice containing more than 3 percent smut is termed "smutty" rice and is eligible for loan as low quality rice. Smutty rice is considered sample grade. Low quality rice is eligible for loan at 20 percent of the discounted loan value.

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