U.S. ending stocks declined from the previous month for new crop corn and cotton, on higher projected ethanol use and a projected increase in exports, respectively, according to USDA’s June 10 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.
Total U.S. corn use for 2010-11 was projected 110 million bushels higher than the previous month, reflecting a 100 million bushel increase in projected ethanol use. This lowered projected corn ending stocks for 2010-11 by 245 million bushels from the previous month, to 1.573 billion bushels.
The season-average farm price for corn is projected 10 cents higher on both ends of the range to $3.30 to $3.90 per bushel.
U.S. corn use for old crop was projected 135 million bushels higher than the previous year on a 150 million bushel increase in corn for ethanol. Feed and residual use was lowered 25 million bushels with increased availability of distillers’ grains.
Old crop corn ending stocks were projected 135 million bushels lower. At 1.603 million bushels, ending stocks would be down 70 million from 2008-09. The projected 2009-10 farm price for corn was lowered 5 cents on both ends of the range to $3.45 to $3.65 per bushel.
Projected global new crop corn production was raised 700,000 tons. USDA also projected a 10-million-bushel increase in projected U.S. sorghum exports for old crop.
USDA is projecting a 200,000 bale decline from the previous month for new crop cotton ending stocks, to 2.8 million bales, equal to 17 percent of total use and the smallest stocks level since 1995-96. The reduction is due mostly to an increase in exports for 2009-10.The forecast range for the marketing-year average price received by producers remains at 60 to 74 cents per pound.
World cotton projections for 2010-11 include projected ending stocks of 49.6 million bales, or 41.5 percent of total use. If realized, this would be the smallest stocks-to-use ratio since 1994-95.
In rice, U.S. imports for 2010-11 were projected at 21 million hundredweight, down 1 million from last month. U.S. 2010-11 rice production projection was left unchanged at a record 244 million hundredweight.
Projected 2010-11 rice exports were raised 2 million hundredweight — all in long-grain rice — to 109 million, based partly on larger expected exports to Western Hemisphere markets. Rough rice exports are projected at a record 45 million hundredweight. Ending stocks for 2010-11 are projected at 45.4 million hundredweight, down 6 million or 12 percent from a month ago, but up 17 million or 60 percent from 2009-10.
The 2010-11 long-grain U.S. season-average farm price was projected at $9.75 to $10.75 per hundredweight, down 25 cents per hundredweight on each end of the range. The combined medium- and short-grain price is projected at $14.50 to $15.50 per hundredweight, unchanged from a month ago. Prices for both classes of rice are projected to be well below 2009-10 levels, mainly due to large domestic and global supplies and lower Asian prices.
Global production is projected at a record 459.4 million tons, down 300,000 tons, while global consumption is projected at a record 452.8 million tons, down 600,000 tons. Global ending stocks for 2010-11 are projected at 96.3 million tons, down 400,000 tons, but up 6.6 million from 2009-10.
U.S. soybean ending stocks for 2009-10 were projected at 185 million bushels, down 5 million from last month while stocks for 2010-11 were reduced 5 million bushels to 360 million bushels.
The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2010-11 is projected at $8 to $9.50 per bushel.
Brazil’s 2009-10 estimated soybean production was increased 1 million tons to a record 69 million reflecting increased harvested area and record yields.
U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2010-11 are projected 6 million bushels lower, but remain up year-to-year and the highest since 1987-88. The season-average farm price for all wheat is projected at $4 to $4.80 per bushel, down from $4.10 to $5.10 per bushel last month.
Global wheat supplies for 2010-11 were projected 4.1 million tons lower in June reflecting reductions for EU-27, the United States and Brazil. Global production for 2010-11 was lowered 3.7 million tons. Global ending stocks are projected 4.2 million tons lower at 193.9 million tons.
e-mail: [email protected]