Market price considerations for the long-awaited week beginning Nov. 7

As anxious global markets await the results of Tuesday's election results, market participants will be adjusting their plans to the outcome.

Market moves could be aggressive or restrained. Market participants at this point must expect the unexpected, according to Bobby Coats, professor in the Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness, University of Arkansas System, Division of Agriculture.

Dr. Coats wrote the following to go with the accompanying charts for the Delta Farm Press. The charts are available at the bottom of this page.

Charts 1 - 2. $UST10Y - 10-Year US Treasury Yield

Primary Consideration:

  • Caution is advised for the week beginning November 7, 2016, since “Event Risk” could take yields lower.

Charts 3 - 4. Soybeans

Primary Consideration:

  • Given uncertainties associated with the week of November 7, 2016 I remain more concerned about additional price weakness and the culmination of a bottoming process.

Alternative Consideration:

  • From a technical perspective, considering global risks and uncertainties and required intervention activities argue a price bottom is in place.

Charts 5 – 6. Corn

Primary consideration:

  • Near term bottoming process underway with a possible low in the $3.00 per bushel area.

Alternative consideration:

  • Bottom in place and upside consideration to $4.15 per bushel.

Charts 7 - 8. Rice

Primary consideration:

  • A bottoming process is underway.

Charts 9 -10. Cotton

Primary Consideration:

  • Corrective price action underway with possible price weakness to the bottom of the Weekly Bollinger Bands on the weekly chart.
  • Bullish prices likely beyond this corrective price activity.

Charts 11 - 12. Wheat

Primary Consideration:

  • Forming a price bottom
  • Price weakness into the $3.80 area a possibility.

Charts 13 - 14. Copper

Primary Consideration:

  • Copper price action the last 2 weeks was encouraging, but  prices likely need to make a final low before turning bullish.

Charts 15 - 16. $WTIC

Primary Consideration:

  • Defining a trading range.
  • OPEC guidance likely defines price low.
  • Global uncertainties supportive of prices.
  • Challenging market.

Charts 17 - 18. CRB Index

Primary consideration:

  • Near term corrective price action before moving higher.

Secondary consideration:

  • The bottom is in place.

Charts 19 - 20. Power Shares US Dollar Index

Primary Considerations:

  • Dollar consolidating gains.
  • U.S. election uncertainties could give the dollar more strength than weakness this week.
  • Global interventionist government and Central Bank activities will define dollar strength or weakness over the next 3 to 12 months.

Charts 21 – 22. Australian Currency

Primary Consideration:

  • Consolidating, coiling price action indicating a major move ahead.
  • Generally a weakening Australian currency implies weakening demand for their commodity based economy and vice-versa.
  • Near term I am neutral but longer term my bias is to the upside.

Charts 23 – 24 British Pound Sterling Trust

Primary Consideration:

  • An obvious weak currency.
  • BREXIT implied the United Kingdom must retool politically, economically, and socially.
  • The currency weakness is a plus for revitalizing their economy.
  • Bottom is likely not in place.

Charts 25 - 26. Canadian Dollar

Primary Consideration:

  • Lack of demand for Canada’s resource sector currently weighing heavy on this market.
  • Near term bearish indicator for their commodity prices.
  • This is a market defining a bottom.

Charts 27 - 28. EURO Trust

Primary Consideration:

  • European Union economic weakness and political and social  uncertainty problematic for EURO, but near term emerging inflationary forces are supportive of EURO and provide DOLLAR relief.

Charts 29 – 30. Japanese Yen Trust

Primary Consideration:

  • Dollar shows strength, while the Yen shows weakness, and vise-versa.
  • With the DOLLAR likely in a consolidation period be respectful of currency dynamics in general.

Charts 31 – 32. SPDR S&P 500 ETF

Primary Consideration:

  • Political and other potential “Event Risk” could move this market lower near term, so let price dynamics define price direction.
  • Revisiting the bottom weekly Bollinger Band and potentially lower.

Charts 33 - 34. QQQ NASDAQ Power Shares

Primary Consideration:

  • Consolidating, assume an election impact.
  • Price uncertainty near term, so be respectful until price  direction is further defined.