Rice harvest

U.S. long grain rice prices remain bullish going into acreage report

USDA’s June 30, 2017 acreage report will relieve some of the U.S. long grain rice market uncertainty.

I remain bullish on U.S. long grain rice prices. USDA’s June 30, 2017 acreage report will relieve some of the U.S. long grain rice market uncertainty.

The dynamics and complexity of the U.S. long grain rice market is being driven by a collection of UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED WITH:

  • Nagging domestic and global growth, raises food security concerns, which, in turn, tends to raise protectionist barriers;
  • Lagging fiscal, trade and regulatory policy response, causes deflationary forces to regain lost momentum and place downward pressure on many commodity markets.
  • Bidirectional domestic and global monetary policy verbal guidance, creates confusion among market participants and enhances market risk.
  • Domestic and global rice and grain fundamentals; related to 2017 acreage, yield, production and quality.
  • Currency dynamics; hedging against currency risks becoming increasing challenge.
  • Intensifying global geopolitical uncertainties – means global exporters, especially rice exporters, find themselves facing a historically, post-World War II, unpredictable global business environment, due to economic, social, and political change.

2017/18 World Rice Supply and Demand

World Rice-Cliff Note Version

  • World rice acreage at 161.8 million hectares is the highest on record
  • World rice yield at 4.4 metric tons per hectare is consistent with previous 4 periods
  • World rice rough production at 717.4 million metric tons is the 2nd highest on record
  • World rice milled production at 481 million metric tons is the 2nd highest on record
  • World trade at 42.3 million metric tons is 3rd highest on record and in-part reflects global uncertainties
  • World rice total use at 479.1 million metric tons is the highest on record
  • World rice ending stocks at 120.5 million metric tons is the highest since 2001/02
  • 2017/18 world rice production (481.3 million tons) is forecasts to exceed 2017/18 total use (480.1 million tons) by 1.2 million tons

Long Grain Rice Supply and Demand -- Cliff Note Version:

USDA’s June 30, 2017 Acreage Report will provide an estimate that more nearly reflects current weather and flooding impacts.

  • The 2017/18 long grain rice season-average farm price range is $10.50 - $11.50 per cwt or $4.73 - $5.18 per bus
  • 2017 long grain rice planted acres estimated at 1,909,000 acres 22% below 2016
    • 5 year average 2,044,400 acres
    • 10 year average 2,150,600 acres
    • 15 year average 2,229,267 acres
  • 2017/18 long grain rice beginning stocks at 27.7 million cwt.
    • Previous 5 year average was 22 million cwt.
    • Previous 10 year average was 24 million cwt.
  • 2017/18 long grain rice production is estimated at 142 million cwt.
    • 15% below 2016/17
    • 5 year average 148 million cwt.
    • 10 year average 149 million cwt.
  • 2017/18 long grain rice total supply is estimated at 190.7 million cwt.
    • 9-percent below 2016/17
    • 5 year average 190 million cwt.
    • 10 year average 191 million cwt.
  • 2017/18 long grain rice domestic and residual use is estimated at 95 million cwt,
    • 6th largest on record
    • 5 year average 95 million cwt.
    • 10 year average 94.5 million cwt.
  • 2017/18 long grain rice total exports is estimated at 77 million cwt,
    • 3 million cwt. below last year
    • 5 year average 72
    • 10 year average 73
  • 2017/18 long grain rice total use is estimated at 172 million cwt.
    • 10 million cwt below 2016/17
    • 5 year average 167 million cwt.
    • 10 year average 167 million cwt.
  • 2017/18 long grain rice ending stocks are estimated at 18.7 million cwt.
    • 32-percent below 2016/17
    • 5 year average 23 million cwt.
    • 10 year average 24 million cwt.

NASS Prospective Planting

  1. S. - Cliff Note Version

As previously stated USDA’s June 30, 2017 Acreage Report will provide an estimate that more nearly reflects current weather and flooding impacts.

  • 2017 Arkansas long grain rice planted acres estimated at 1,050,000 acres 25.5% below 2016, five year average 1,150,000, 10 year average 1,202,000, 15 year average 1,250,000 acres
  • 2017 California long grain rice planted acres estimated at 9,000 acres the same as 2016, 5 year average 7,000, 10 year average 6,800, 15 year average 7,067 acres
  • 2017 Louisiana long grain rice planted acres estimated at 375,000 acres 9.2% below 2016, 5 year average 387,000, 10 year average 405,500, 15 year average 415,467 acres
  • 2017 Mississippi long grain rice planted acres estimated at 375,000 acres 9.2% below 2016, 5 year average 156,000, 10 year average 185,000, 15 year average 197,667 acres
  • 2017 Missouri long grain rice planted acres estimated at 200,000 acres 13% below 2016, 5 year average 194,400, 10 year average 193,200, 15 year average 197,667 acres
  • 2017 Texas long grain rice planted acres estimated at 155,000 acres 16.2% below 2016, 5 year average 150,000, 10 year average 158100, 15 year average 165,000 acres
  • 2017 United States long grain rice planted acres estimated at 1,909,000 acres 21% below 2016, 5 year average 2,044,400, 10 year average 2,150,600, 15 year average 2,229,267 acres

Please view accompanying Rice Slide Show by clicking on the download button below..

  1. Bobby Coats is a professor in the Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness, Division of Agriculture, University of Arkansas System. E-mail: [email protected]

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