Global stocks of rice are tightening in 2015

Global stocks of rice are tightening in 2015

Global ending stocks of most agricultural commodities are expected to reach multi-year highs in 2015. Rice is an exception, with global ending stocks projected to decline for the second year in a row to reach their lowest level since the 2009-10 marketing year.

Global ending stocks of most agricultural commodities, including feedgrains, oilseeds, wheat, and cotton are expected to reach multi-year highs in 2015. Ample supplies are reflected in prices that are well below the record levels of just a few years ago.

Rice is an exception, with global ending stocks projected to decline for the second year in a row to reach their lowest level since the 2009-10 marketing year (August/July).

At the same time, global use continues to grow, led by consumption growth in China, India, Bangladesh, the Philippines, and several other nations.

(Click to enlarge)
(Click to enlarge)

As a result, the global stocks-to-use ratio is projected at just over 20 percent, the lowest it has been since 2007-08, a time when international concern over high commodity and food prices led several of the world’s leading rice producing and consuming countries to restrict exports and increase government-owned rice reserves.

These actions resulted in a rapid rise in global rice prices and reduced trade. Today, even though global stocks are approaching levels that prompted substantial trade restrictions in early 2008, prices are lower and global rice trade remains at near-record levels. This chart is from the April 2015 Rice Outlook.

TAGS: Outlook
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