USDA’s February Crop Production report and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates raised U.S. corn exports, lowered world cotton production and estimated the highest milling yield for the U.S. rice crop in five years.
U.S. corn ending stocks are projected 150 million bushels lower on a 150 million bushel increase in exports. The season-average farm price for corn is now projected 10 cents higher. Corn production is unchanged from last month at 13.9 billion bushels.
According to USDA, increased U.S. exports are expected to fill the gap between higher foreign corn imports and lower foreign corn exports. Global corn ending stocks are projected 2.9 million tons lower, but still remain at a 13-year high.
U.S. cotton ending stocks remain at a projected at 3 million bales. Global consumption is unchanged from last month and is lowered for China, where additional information about re-classing in Xinjiang Province indicates production is lower than previously thought. The estimate of world cotton production declined 1.13 million bales, to 116.67 million bales, while the estimate of U.S. production remained at 13.19 million bales.
Domestic and residual use remains at 120 million hundredweight, however, long-grain domestic use was raised 1 million to 89 million hundredweight and combined medium and short-grain domestic use was lowered 1 million to 31 million hundredweight.
The forecast for U.S. rice exports was raised 1 million hundredweight to 100 million hundredweight on higher medium- and short-grain exports. Rough rice exports are increased 1 million hundredweight to 36 million.
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All rice ending stocks were lowered 1 million hundredweight to 27.3 million hundredweight with long-grain stocks down 1 million to 16.3 million.
The 2013-14 average milling yield for U.S. rice was increased to 71 percent, the highest milling yield achieved since 2009-10, due to mostly favorable growing conditions throughout 2013.
USDA noted that reduced prospects for 2014-15 medium-grain production in the Sacramento Valley of California due to drought and reduced irrigation supplies have significantly raised medium-grain prices in California. Additionally, export demand for medium-grain rice is up nearly 12 percent from last year as U.S. medium-grain export commitments from Turkey are more than twice the level of 2012-13.
Global 2013-14 rice production is forecast at a record 471.5 million tons, up 400,000 tons from last month. Estimated world ending stocks were lowered marginally from a month ago to 105 million tons.
U.S. soybean exports for 2013-14 are projected at 1.51 billion bushels, up 15 million from last month reflecting the record pace of shipments and sales through January. Production remains unchanged at 3.3 billion bushels. Projected U.S. soybean ending stocks remain at 150 million bushels.
Global soybean production was raised 900,000 tons to a record 287.7 million tons. Soybean production for Brazil is projected at a record 90 million tons, up 1 million from last month. Prospects for the Argentina soybean crop fell to 54 million tons due to an extended period of hot, dry weather through mid-January.
U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2013-14 are projected 50 million bushels lower on higher expected food use and exports. Exports are projected higher for all classes except durum.