USDA bumped exports and production in old crop cotton while raising corn ending stocks to a surprisingly low 757 million bushels in its April 10 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. Here’s more.
Domestic corn use for 2012-13 is projected 100 million bushels lower as a 50-million-bushel increase in corn for ethanol partly offset a projected 150 million bushel decline in feed and residual use.
Corn exports for 2012-13 were projected 25 million bushels lower reflecting the continued sluggish pace of sales and shipments and additional competition from Brazil and Ukraine. Projected U.S. corn ending stocks for 2012-13 were raised 125 million bushels to 757 million bushels, significantly lower than trade estimates of nearly a billion bushels.
Old crop cotton production was raised 280,000 bales based on USDA’s final Cotton Ginningsreport, released March 25. Exports were raised to 13 million bales, based on larger supply and strong export shipments to date. Ending stocks remained around 4.2 million bales. The marketing year average price received by producers is now forecast at 70.5 to 73.5 cents per pound, up 0.5 cent on each end of the range, reflecting recent higher prices.
World 2012-13 ending stocks are now projected at 82.5 million bales, nearly 1 percent above last month. According to USDA, China’s higher imports are expected to displace potential sales from its massive national reserve, raising stocks there to a projected 45.6 million bales. Stocks outside of China are projected 2 percent below last month. According to Sharon Johnson with Knight Futures, “Today’s numbers are friendly since the rest of the world stocks are down despite the increase in China.”
A decrease in 2012-13 domestic and residual use, based on higher than expected rice stocks, led to a 5 million hundredweight, or 17 percent increase, in rice ending stocks to 34.1 million hundredweight. Long-grain ending stocks were raised 4 million hundredweight to 20.4 million, and medium- and short-grain stocks increased 1 million to 11.5 million hundredweight.
World rice production was reduced 500,000 tons to 467.6 million tons, still a record, largely due to lower projections for Colombia, Pakistan, and Thailand, which are partially offset by increased projections for Ecuador, Indonesia, and the Philippines.
Global consumption was reduced 500,000 tons, largely due to reductions for Burma, Brazil, Pakistan, the Philippines, South Africa, South Korea, Thailand, and the United States.
Global 2012-13 ending stocks, at 103.8 million tons, are up 500,000 tons from last month, but down 1.7 million from the prior year.
U.S. soybean exports are projected at 1.35 billion bushels, up 5 million, on stronger-than-expected shipments in recent weeks. U.S. soybean ending stocks are projected at 125 million bushels, unchanged from last month.
Global oilseed production for 2012-13 was projected at 468.8 million tons, up 2 million from last month. South American soybean production accounts for most of the change. Paraguay soybean production was forecast at 8.35 million tons, up 600,000 tons as higher yields more than offset reduced harvested area.
Global soybean ending stocks are projected at 62.6 million tons, up 2.4 million as gains in Brazil and Argentina more than offset lower stocks in China.
U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2012-13 are projected 15 million bushels higher with a small increase in seed use more than offset by lower expected feed and residual disappearance.
The projected range for the wheat season-average farm price is narrowed 5 cents on both ends to $7.70 to $7.90 per bushel. Global wheat supplies for 2012- 13 were raised 2.9 million tons on higher world beginning stocks with the biggest increases for EU-27, Morocco, and Mexico.
Global wheat trade is projected higher for 2012-13 with exports raised 2.6 million tons. World wheat ending stocks for 2012-13 are projected 4 million tons higher.