USDA is projecting records for U.S. corn and soybean production in 2014-15, as well as record production for global corn and Brazilian soybeans. Here’s more from USDA’s May World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.
U.S. corn production is projected at 13.9 billion bushels, up slightly from the 2013-14 record. U.S. corn yield is projected at 165.3 bushels per acre, up 6.5 bushels from 2013-14.
Corn feed and residual use is projected 50 million bushels lower with animal numbers down from 2013-14. Exports are projected 200 million bushels lower than last year. Corn used for ethanol in 2014-15 is expected to be unchanged. Corn ending stocks are projected at 1.7 billion bushels, up 580 million from 2013-14.
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Projected global corn production for 2014-15 is a record 979.1 million tons. World corn consumption is projected at a record 965.8 million tons, up 17 million from 2013-14. Global corn ending stocks for 2014-15 are projected at 181.7 million tons, up 13.3 million tons on the year and a 15-year high.
U.S. rice ending stocks for 2014-15 are expected to rise 17 percent, while beginning stocks are forecast at 29.3 million hundredweight, down 20 percent from the previous year.
U.S. rice production for 2014-15 is projected at 213 million hundredweight, up 12 percent from 2013-14. Long-grain production is projected at 161 million hundredweight and combined medium- and short-grain production at 52 million hundredweight.
USDA reports that the decline in California medium-grain plantings due to drought and water restrictions have attracted more acres of medium-grain rice in the Delta where plantings in 2014 are projected up 39 percent. All rice average yield is projected at 7,468 pounds per acre, down 3 percent from the previous year’s record.
Exports of medium-grain rice will be constrained by tighter U.S. supplies because of reduced plantings in California. U.S. all rice ending stocks for 2014-15 are projected at 34.3 million hundredweight, with long-grain ending stocks at 24.3 million hundredweight, and combined medium- and short-grain rice stocks at 7.7 million.
Global 2014- 15 rice production is projected at a record 480.7 million tons, up 4.6 million from 2013- 14. Global 2014-15 rice consumption is projected at a record 482.2 million tons, up 1.5 percent from the previous year. Global exports in 2014-15 are projected at a record 41.4 million tons.
U.S. soybean production is projected at a record 3.635 billion bushels, up 346 million from the 2013 crop. Yield is projected at 45.2 bushels per acre, up 1.9 bushels from 2013. Despite gains in use, ending stocks for 2014- 15 are projected at 330 million bushels, up 200 million from 2013-14.
The Brazil soybean crop is projected at a record 91 million tons, up 3.5 million. The Argentina soybean crop is projected at 54 million tons.
U.S. cotton production is forecast at 14.5 million bales. The U.S. abandonment rate is projected at 24 percent due to persistent severe drought in the Southwest.
Domestic mill use is forecast at 3.7 million bales, 100,000 bales above 2013- 14. Exports are projected at 9.7 million bales, down 7 percent, due to lower anticipated world import demand. Ending stocks are raised to 3.9 million bales or 29 percent of total use, which is about equal to the previous 10-year average.
World cotton production is projected 1.4 percent lower than 2013-14 at 115.5 million bales. World consumption is expected to rise more than 2 percent. China’s beginning stocks are expected to reach nearly 60 million bales, more than 60 percent of total world stocks. China’s imports are projected to fall about one-third in 2014-15, as the government is likely to restrict imports in favor of consumption of domestic cotton. With China’s ending stocks expected to grow slightly, world stocks outside of China would rise about 7 percent.
Wheat production is projected at 1.963 billion bushels, down 8 percent from last year. Total U.S. wheat use for 2014-15 is projected down 11 percent year to year as feed and residual disappearance and exports are expected to fall with tighter supplies and higher prices. Projected feed and residual disappearance is down 50 million bushels due to abundant feed grain supplies.
Exports for 2014-15 are projected at 950 million bushels. At 540 million bushels, estimated 2014-15 wheat ending stocks are down 43 million from 2013- 14. World wheat production is projected at 697 million tons, down 2 percent from the 2013-14 record. Global ending stocks for 2014-15 are projected at 187.4 million tons, up 900,000 tons from 2013-14.