AccuWeather.com reports the indications are that the tropical Atlantic will give birth to several systems over the next couple of weeks. It is possible that we will plow through at least three named systems by Aug. 25: Franklin, Gert and Harvey.
August is a time when the Cape Verde storms (tropical systems that originate from the Cape Verde Islands near Africa) begin to ramp up, while the risk of near-shore formation of storms continues. A push of cooler air into the Northeast is sometimes a sign that the tropical Atlantic is about to roll into high gear. That extra cool push in the north helps to generate some spin in the subtropics, farther south.
Some of our forecast tools suggest at least two tropical waves (Cape Verde systems) will have moderate development. The first disturbance may affect the Leeward Islands this weekend with drenching downpours and squalls. The second system may visit the same area during the second half of next week with similar conditions.
Both of these systems, if they do develop, could come close to Bermuda waters several days after affecting the Lesser Antilles.
According to Tropical Weather and Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski, “A disturbance associated with a cluster of thunderstorms over land crossing the Southeast U.S. now may work to give birth to a weak, short-lived tropical system off the Carolina coast late this week.” It is this system that could be the first of the three to reach tropical status.
The intensity of these systems is difficult to determine. They simply haven’t formed yet. According to Long Range Expert Paul Pastelok, “There are still disruptive areas of wind shear and pockets of dry air lurking about the Atlantic.” These two inhibiting factors have minimized the intensity of tropical systems to date this year and may continue to govern the intensity of future storms over the next couple of weeks. While an atmospheric roadblock will continue to protect the U.S. mainland coast for the next 10 to 14 days, there is some indication this protection will expire for the Southeast U.S. somewhere around Aug. 25.